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sEA-LNG responds to the report of the Worldwide Council on Clear Transportation (ICCT): Evaluating future demand, provide and life-cycle emissions from bio, artificial and fossil LNG marine fuels within the European Union.
The report makes use of poor knowledge and unrealistic assumptions to misrepresent the advantages of the LNG path to the decarbonization transition of transport.
A current ICCT research evaluating the demand, provide and life-cycle emissions of bio, artificial and fossil LNG marine fuels fails to consider the most recent knowledge on the expertise accessible for LNG-fueled vessels.
LNG route price
ICCT considerably reduces the potential availability of bioLNG for transport to Europe and will increase its price. It estimates {that a} most of 700 PJ (peta joules) of BioLNG might be accessible in 2030 if ship homeowners, operators and charterers are keen to pay as much as €216/GJ. That is unattainable when the present quantity of European biomethane manufacturing in line with the European Biogas Affiliation is 690 PJ – from anaerobic digestion, at a price of solely €14-25/GJ.
ICCT accurately states that the provision of e-LNG is probably limitless however shall be expensive. The ICCT fails so as to add that since round 80% of the price of producing e-fuels is linked to the manufacturing of frequent renewable hydrogen feedstock, all e-fuels can be equally costly, not simply e-LNG.
The ICCT forecast that Europe will want roughly €18bn per yr of public help for the LNG route in 2030, primarily based on these faulty figures. SEA-LNG can have extra to say on bio LNG prices and availability in early October. ICCT makes no effort to quantify the quantity of help wanted for different fuels, that are primarily based on unproven applied sciences and, moreover, would require large new infrastructure investments.
methane slip
ICCT’s forecasts of life-cycle, or well-to-wake (WtW), CO2e emissions for LNG-fueled vessels in 2030 are old-fashioned. They’re primarily based on historic vessel fleet knowledge dominated by older, out of date 4-stroke low stress diesel engine applied sciences.
For its WtW CO2e GHG emissions calculations, ICCT makes use of secondary knowledge primarily based on older engine applied sciences to ship a most GHG discount of 15% for LNG-fueled vessels in comparison with marine fuel oil. That is far lower than the 23% recognized by Sphera in its landmark 2021 research, which makes use of present main knowledge from all main engine producers, takes under consideration methane emissions and is broadly accessible for assessment.
As well as, the most recent DNV knowledge on the LNG order guide exhibits that greater than half of LNG-fueled new builds will use the most recent high-pressure 2-stroke engines, 70% of which shall be high-pressure engines that can produce negligible methane slip. These engines will function in deep sea transport the place 70%-80% of marine gasoline is burned, thus affecting most GHG emissions.
ICCT’s view on methane slip doesn’t account for engine expertise growth. LNG engine expertise has lowered methane slip by greater than 75% for the reason that gasoline was first launched on the flip of the century. The Sphera research estimates that methane slip for all sorts of engines shall be nearly eradicated by 2030 because of engine producer improvements and different methane elimination initiatives.
Ready isn’t an possibility – LNG as a marine gasoline provides speedy GHG advantages and low threat, low price, and an incremental path to zero emissions through BioLNG within the close to time period and e-LNG within the mid to long run Is.
Supply: sea-lng
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